Weekly Solar Insights: Your Right-Now Action Guide for the UK, Germany & Italy

Three countries, three solar stories - and this week, each one comes with a clear "so what should I actually do?" moment. Let's get into it.

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🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Bills Just Jumped. Your Solar Export Might Not Have.

Here's the headline you probably already saw: the average energy bill for a typical UK household rose to £1,862 per year on 1 July 2026 - a £221 jump, or about £18 more per month. The rise is driven by higher wholesale gas prices, linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The Ofgem energy price cap rose to £1,862/year on 1 July 2026 - up £221 (+13.5%) on the previous quarter.

That stings. But here's the bit that often gets lost in the headlines: your solar export payments are a completely separate world. The Smart Export Guarantee (SEG) replaced the old Feed-in Tariff in January 2020. Unlike the old system, SEG rates are set by each supplier - not by a fixed government rate - which means they vary widely. Ofgem's price cap going up doesn't automatically push your export rate up or down.

What's actually moving in the SEG market right now

A few things worth knowing:

• British Gas rate cut - but probably not for you. British Gas is reducing its SEG export tariff from 15.1p to 8p for larger solar systems from July 2026. This cut applies to systems above 15 kW. For a typical domestic install (well under 15 kW) the 15.1p rate is expected to continue - but this is a clear reminder that export rates move.

• Octopus paused its best tariff. The highest headline rate is Octopus Intelligent Flux at up to 32p/kWh peak - but it requires a battery and is currently paused.

• A new name worth knowing: Fuse Energy. Fuse Energy became a mandatory SEG licensee on 1 April 2026 and set an open-to-all rate of 13p/kWh - no need to switch your import supplier. Fuse Energy became a mandatory SEG licensee on 1 April 2026, and immediately set their open-to-all rate at 13p/kWh. You can keep any import supplier and still claim this rate. For solar-only households who don't want the hassle of switching import supplier, Fuse is currently the best deal in the country.

• The top rates are higher - but come with strings. The best installer-exclusive rates are Good Energy at 25p/kWh and EDF at 24p/kWh - but only for solar installed by their network.

Your right-now action: If you already have panels, spend five minutes checking your current SEG rate. SEG tariffs are variable and can change on roughly 30 days' notice. If you're still on a legacy rate below 10p, you're almost certainly leaving money on the table.

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🇩🇪 Germany: The Clock Is Ticking on a 20-Year Guarantee

Germany's solar story this week is really about timing - and a draft law that could change the rules for anyone who waits.

Right now, if you install solar panels and connect them to the grid, you lock in a government-backed feed-in tariff for 20 years. The current EEG feed-in tariff (from August 2025) is approximately 7.86 ct/kWh for surplus-feed systems up to 10 kW, or about 12.47 ct/kWh if you feed in your entire output. The Renewable Energy Sources Act mandates a semi-annual reduction of subsidy rates, with a degression rate of 1% taking effect on 1 February and 1 August each year. So the rate you lock in today is slightly better than the one available in six months.

The 2027 draft law - what it says, and what it doesn't (yet)

Germany's Economy Ministry is planning to end the feed-in tariff for small solar systems. Instead, utility-scale ground-mounted PV is to be expanded more strongly. A leaked draft of Germany's Renewable Energy Sources Act 2027 (EEG 2027) signals a major shift in renewables support. The draft is dated 22 January 2026 and is still under inter-ministerial review.

This is not yet law. The EEG 2027 is expected to enter into force on 1 January 2027, though the timeline is ambitious given ongoing inter-ministerial coordination, outstanding parliamentary approval and required EU State aid clearance. The final legislation may differ from the leaked draft bill.

But the direction of travel is clear. The draft goes a step further by completely discontinuing subsidies for new installations under 25 kW. The ministry's rationale is that falling costs have made many of these small-scale systems, particularly rooftop PV, economically viable through self-consumption alone.

One more thing: the "negative price" rule

There's already a law in force that's quietly reshaping how German solar works. Under the new "Solar Peak Act," photovoltaic systems larger than 2 kW no longer receive compensation during periods of negative electricity exchange prices. This applies to systems commissioned since the end of February 2025. In plain English: on very sunny days when the grid is flooded with solar power and prices go negative, you won't earn anything for what you export. This makes using your own solar - or storing it in a battery - more valuable than ever.

Under Germany's Solarspitzengesetz (in force from 25 February 2025), systems above 2 kWp receive no feed-in payment during any 15-minute window when spot prices are negative.

Your right-now action: If you've been thinking about solar in Germany, the case for acting in 2026 rather than 2027 is genuinely strong. Systems installed in 2026 are locked in for 20 years at current rates. The guarantee runs for 20 years from the date of commissioning, plus the remaining calendar year. If you commission your system in, say, late 2026, you receive the tariff until the end of 2046.

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🇮🇹 Italy: A Tax Break That's Still Very Much Alive

Italy's solar news this week is actually good news - with a deadline attached.

Net metering is gone for new systems

If you've been following Italian solar policy, you'll know that the old Scambio sul Posto (net metering) scheme is now closed to new applicants. The last access was reserved for systems that entered service by 29 May 2025, with a request to GSE by 26 September 2025 (Delibera ARERA 78/2025/R/efr, in implementation of D.Lgs. 199/2021).

For anyone installing today, the replacement is called Ritiro Dedicato. Unlike the old net metering, Ritiro Dedicato doesn't involve compensation between energy fed in and energy drawn from the grid. Instead, the GSE pays for all the surplus electricity you export, with payments made monthly. The catch: with Ritiro Dedicato, it's a straightforward sale of the energy you feed in. The weak point is that the GSE buys your energy when it's worth least - at midday, when all Italian solar systems are generating together and the price drops.

The practical upshot? Self-consumption and battery storage become even more important under the new system.

The tax break you shouldn't miss

Here's the genuinely good news. Italy's 50% tax deduction on solar for a primary residence remains valid through 31 December 2026, with a reduced rate of 36% for second homes - recovered in equal instalments over 10 years. For a primary residence, 50% of the costs can be claimed. For secondary or other homes, the rate is 36%. The total credit amount is spread out and refunded evenly over ten years. On top of that, a reduced 10% VAT rate applies to almost all solar installations on existing residential buildings.

A typical 6 kWp system runs €6,600-€9,000 before incentives. With the 50% tax deduction, the net effective cost falls to approximately €3,300-€4,500. That's a meaningful difference.

Your right-now action: The 50% deduction is confirmed through 31 December 2026 - but it requires payments to be made and paperwork filed within the year. If you're planning to install, don't leave it until December.

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What This Means for You

Wherever you are, the theme this week is the same: the rules are shifting, and the people who act on today's incentives tend to do better than those who wait for a "better" moment that may not come.

• UK homeowners are paying more for energy than they were three months ago. Solar panels directly cut the units you buy from the grid - and the SEG market still offers decent export rates if you shop around.
• German homeowners have a genuine window in 2026 to lock in a 20-year guaranteed tariff before a proposed law change that could remove it entirely for new systems.
• Italian homeowners have a tax deduction worth up to half the system cost - but it expires at the end of this year.

As always, these are moving targets. Rates, laws, and incentives change - always check the latest position with your supplier or a local installer before making decisions.

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